Every Player
No shortlist, no hidden picks. Every projected player is visible and explorable.
Premier League Player Probability Intelligence
Every player.
Every angle.
Every match.
ContextXI turns football data, matchups, team news and changing context into explainable player probabilities — so you can see what may happen next, and why.
Probabilities, not promises.See why probabilities change.Every published forecast stays on record.
ARSArsenal
PREMIER LEAGUE · 20:00vsEmirates Stadium
MCIMan City
BS
PLAYER INTELLIGENCE
STRONG POSITIVEBukayo Saka
ARS · Right wing · Expected 88 minsGOAL INVOLVEMENT81%
74% → 81%+7 percentage points
SOT67%
To score39%
Fouled74%
MODEL SIGNAL3 connected factors
→Line-up, role and opponent context align.
PROBABILITY MOVEMENT+7Percentage points
MODEL UPDATED2 minutes ago
Built for clarityUpdated as context changesAccountable by design
Every Probability
Clear likelihoods for player events, expressed as probabilities rather than promises.
Every Movement
See when a probability changes as line-ups, roles and match context evolve.
Every Reason
Open the explanation behind each signal and understand what moved the model.
SEE CONTEXTXI IN ACTIONPlayer intelligence,
Player intelligence,
without the black box.
Start with the probability. See how it moved. Open the reasoning only when you want the deeper context.
BS↗
Bukayo Saka
ARS · RW · Expected 88 minsGoal involvement
81%
Movement+7 percentage points
SOT 67%Goal 39%Fouled 74%
WHY?
Confirmed start · advanced role
View all →EH↗
Erling Haaland
MCI · ST · Expected 90 mins2+ shots on target
68%
Movement+4 percentage points
SOT 61%Goal 55%Fouled 46%
WHY?
Box volume · opponent profile
View all →MO↗
Martin Ødegaard
ARS · AM · Expected 86 minsCreates a big chance
56%
Movement+9 percentage points
SOT 31%Goal 24%Fouled 52%
WHY?
Set-piece role · central overload
View all →CONTEXT CHANGES. SO SHOULD THE NUMBER.What changed —
What changed —
and why?
A probability without context is just a number. ContextXI shows the movement and the specific football reasons behind it.
01
Team news landsConfirmed line-ups remove uncertainty.
02
Roles become clearerPosition and expected minutes update.
03
The model respondsProbability moves with the evidence.
BS
UPDATED 2M AGOBukayo SakaGoal involvement
EARLIER74%
→NOW81%
+7 percentage points
What changed
✓
Confirmed in starting XIMinutes confidence increased from 76 to 88.
↗
More advanced roleExpected touch position moved closer to goal.
◎
Favourable matchupOpponent concedes more chances down this side.
HISTORICAL PROOF, FREE TO EVERYONEPredictions remembered.
Predictions remembered.
Outcomes kept honest.
We preserve what the model said before kick-off and show what actually happened separately. No rewriting history. No calling every probability a win or loss.
ARCHIVED PREDICTION03 AUG · PREMIER LEAGUE
ARSArsenal
2 — 1BHABrighton
Published probability66%Arsenal home win
Actual outcome2–1Home win occurred
i
The outcome is evidence within a larger calibrated record — not proof that a single probability was “right”.
MODEL CALIBRATIONSee the complete historical record →
When we say 70%, it happens about 70% of the time.
41%40% forecast
49%50% forecast
61%60% forecast
69%70% forecast
78%80% forecast
FROM HINDSIGHT TO FORESIGHTStats tell you what happened.
Stats tell you what happened.
ContextXI tells you what may happen next — and why.
TRADITIONAL STATS
The record
- Goals and assists
- Shots and touches
- Past averages
- Final outcomes
Useful history, but the match has already happened.
→
CONTEXTXI
The changing picture
- Player probabilities
- Role and matchup context
- Live probability movement
- Explainable reasons
A forward-looking view that changes when the football context does.
CHOOSE YOUR VIEWProof is free.
Proof is free.
Current intelligence is Pro.
Explore how the model has performed before deciding whether today’s complete player intelligence is for you.
Understand the model
Transparent proof and a clear introduction to ContextXI.
£0forever
- Historical predictions and outcomes
- Calibration and accountability
- Selected match intelligence
- Core probability explanations
See today before it unfolds
Complete current intelligence across every player and match.
Early accesspricing announced soon
- Every projected player visible
- Current player probabilities
- Probability movement tracking
- Full “Why?” explanations
- Matchup and team-news context
ACCOUNTABILITY BY DESIGNIntelligence you can
Intelligence you can
inspect, not just accept.
ContextXI is built around explainability. The original probability, the movement, the reasons and the final outcome remain distinct and visible.
Probabilities stay probabilities
We communicate uncertainty instead of disguising it as certainty.
Signals are explained
“Why?” connects the number to the football context behind it.
Outcomes stay separate
What happened never overwrites what the model originally expected.
The full record remains visible
Historical proof is available without a Pro subscription.
FREQUENTLY ASKEDClear questions.
Clear questions.
Straight answers.
ContextXI should be as understandable as the intelligence it presents.
Is ContextXI a betting tips service?+
No. ContextXI is a football intelligence product. It presents modelled probabilities and the context behind them, not guaranteed outcomes or financial advice.
What does a player probability mean?+
It is the model’s estimate of how likely a specific player event is, based on role, expected minutes, opposition, team news and current match context.
Why do probabilities move?+
They update when meaningful information changes: confirmed line-ups, injuries, tactical roles, expected minutes, opponent shape or other relevant context.
What is available for free?+
Free access includes historical proof, selected match intelligence and transparent model outcomes. Pro adds current intelligence, full player coverage and live movement explanations.
Does a 70% probability count as a win if it happens?+
We avoid that framing. A probability is judged through calibration across many predictions. Historical outcomes are shown separately from the original forecast.
See the game’s changing
context before it unfolds.
Explore today’s matches, open any player and understand the probability — and the reasons behind it.